Mathematical Modelling of Malaria Transmission Dynamics in Tanzania Incorporating Temperature and Rainfall Variability with Susceptibility Levels

Abstract

Malaria remains a major public health challenge in many tropical regions, where environmental conditions strongly influence disease transmission. In this study, a mathematical model is developed to investigate the impact of temperature and rainfall on malaria dynamics in Tanzania while accounting for differences in human susceptibility to mosquito bites. The model consists of interacting human and mosquito populations and incorporates climate-dependent parameters that affect mosquito survival, reproduction, and transmission potential. The analytical analysis is performed to determine the disease-free and endemic equilibrium states and to derive the basic reproduction number, which serves as a threshold indicator for disease persistence. Numerical simulations are conducted to examine the effects of varying climatic conditions on malaria transmission. The findings shows that both infected humans and infected mosquitoes increases as temperature increases from 15◦C to 35◦C, after which the infection decreases as the temperature continues to increase beyond 35◦C. Additionally, the infection in mosquitoes increases as rainfall rises from 15 mm to 25 mm, but it decreases when rainfall increases beyond 25 mm. Thus, the findings suggest that considering temperature, rainfall and human susceptibilities can help identify effective malaria control methods.